OMNISCIENCE

"Technologies of the Third Mediamorphosis," by Roger Fidler.

I was fascinated to see the extent to which industrialization and the spread of the railroad system compelled early communication technologies, especially where they would fascilitate instantaneous communication over a large distance. At present, of course, the computer has generated a dizzying array of alternative modes of communication, all very easy and immediate, but I do see certain parallels between the early industrialists and modern online game developers. Both are trying to build infrastructure, establish standards and develop systems that allow users to communicate with each other. Admittedly, game developers build on top of 200 years of existing infrastructure, and many new technological hurdles that exist are largely because of a desire to perpetuate or protect propietary systems or technology, rather than speed the adoption of standards. This is particularly true in the games industry. But we are facing certain challenges not unlike the early expansionist industrialists: the desire to connect communities and interested parties, to fascilitate the exchange and mediation of products or information, and the overriding interest in making money on the whole thing. Think Snowcrash: massive virtual environments where people can communicate, trade, collaborate or compete. That is clearly the future of online gaming. It's the 1800s again, but virtual.

We're a long way from achieving anything like the transparency of virtual environment depicted in Snow Crash, where it is presumably possible to ignore or be unaware of the underlying technology. Looking at the progression Fidler makes in this week's article, though, I can extrapolate from the 40s televisions and the 90s internet to arrive at a massively virtual visual online environment within 20 years, which may even be standardized the way the internet is. To be sure, the current battle between Sony and Microsoft will influence the precise shape this environment takes, and may even inspire a parallel open-source extension of current web protocols. One thing looks certain: the core technologies behind modern 3d gaming, especially online gaming, will be essential.

So the central question seems to be, will this new environment enjoy standardized protocols, or will it be pinned to proprietary licensed technology as I'm certain either Sony or Microsoft would prefer (and prefer it be theirs)? The survival principle, referenced in this article, could be interpreted to go either way. Sony or Microsoft, and their respective online gaming portals, will evolve as market forces dictate. A particularly successful title on either side would influence the process. Also, it's not inconcievable that in-game communication, which currently supports voice, text and avatar synchronization, could become a threat to present day conventional channels of phones, email or television. It just depends how much time people end up wanting to "log in" to this virtual environment. I'm sure Postman would have something to say about this. It isn't likely to improve anyone's life or help them do their jobs significantly differently than current technologies, but it is likely to occur in some form or another regardless.